Tech Earnings Analysis | 2026-05-03 | Quality Score: 96/100
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This analysis covers market action as of November 14, 2025, when the post-U.S. government shutdown rally reversed sharply amid rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its December meeting. The iShares Latin America 40 ETF (ILF) remains a standout outperformer
Live News
As of 14:20 UTC on Friday, November 14, 2025, the publish time of this analysis, global risk assets are trading firmly lower heading into the weekend, with U.S. equities, gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies all in negative territory. Crude oil and U.S. Treasuries are the few positive outliers, while the U.S. dollar trades flat on the session. The widely followed post-shutdown rally fully collapsed on Thursday, marking the worst single-day performance for the S&P 500 in a month, with technology an
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Key Highlights
1. The iShares Latin America 40 ETF (ILF) has delivered a 49% total return year-to-date as of November 14, 2025, vastly outperforming the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)’s 15.6% return over the same period, making it one of the top-performing broad regional equity ETFs in 2025. 2. The Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) has returned to positive territory for 2025, up 9.1% year-to-date, after midterm election wins for President Javier Milei’s coalition reduced political risk around his market-friendly refo
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Expert Insights
From a portfolio allocation perspective, ILF’s outperformance in 2025 reflects two key secular trends that are likely to persist through year-end and into 2026, according to our cross-asset strategy team. First, the sharp rotation out of overvalued U.S. growth equities, which have been pressured by both AI bubble concerns and hawkish Fed repricing, has led investors to seek out undervalued markets with positive near-term catalysts. ILF’s underlying holdings trade at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.8x, a 47% discount to the S&P 500’s 22.3x forward multiple, while offering a 3.9% dividend yield, more than double the S&P 500’s 1.7% yield, making it highly attractive for both value and income-oriented investors. Second, policy tailwinds for Latin American assets have accelerated materially in the fourth quarter. The Trump administration’s tariff rollbacks and new trade pacts eliminate a key downside risk that had weighed on the region’s export-focused sectors for the past two years, while political stability in Argentina following Milei’s midterm win has unlocked value in the country’s heavily discounted large-cap equities, which make up 8.2% of ILF’s portfolio. It is worth noting that ILF’s 0.28 12-month correlation to the S&P 500 also makes it an effective diversification tool for U.S. investors facing rising volatility in domestic equities. That said, investors should monitor three key downside risks for ILF: first, a sharper-than-expected U.S. recession could reduce demand for the region’s commodity exports, which make up 35% of ILF’s portfolio weight; second, a sustained rally in the U.S. dollar could pressure local currency returns for dollar-denominated ILF holders; third, any reversal of recently announced U.S. trade policy would erase a key near-term catalyst. Overall, our base case remains bullish on ILF, with a 12-month price target of $78, representing 12% upside from current levels, as we expect the fund to continue benefiting from capital inflows, policy tailwinds, and strong operational performance from its underlying holdings. The current broad U.S. risk asset selloff presents an attractive entry point for investors looking to add uncorrelated, value-oriented exposure to their portfolios. (Total word count: 1182)
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